Dice probability

[Sean Clark]

I played Art de la Guerre on Friday. It was odd going to a game where combat is decided on the an opposed dice roll of 1D6, typically with a +1 or +2 modifier.

It made me think about the odds if I role 1D6 with a +1 against an opponent rolling a straight D6. What are my chances of beating my friends score? Same if I have a +2?

For the +1 scenario, if he rolls a 1 or a 2, he can't beat me. If I roll a 5 or a 6 he can't beat me either.  But without knowing what either of us will roll  can we work out the percentage chamce of I have a +1 or +2? This is probably primary school maths but I can't think how to work it out.

[Colonel Kilgore]

Sean,
I could help you, but since you're a heretic playing the wrong rules, I won't 
Simon

[usagitsuki]

A+1 on an opposed d6 roll is very significant. You'll win 21, draw 5 and lose 10 out of 36 outcomes. So winning twice as many as you lose. Initiating combat against +1 is practically suicidal. I never ceased to be amazed how many people did it anyway in the days of DBM and Armati

[Sean Clark]

I've managed to work it out long handed now. You're right, +1 makes a big difference. On a straight die roll with no modifiers, you win roughly 42% of the rolls. Add a +1 and you're now winning over 58% of the rolls.

On a +2 and it's over 72% and you're not losing over 88% of the time.

Aren't numbers fun!

[usagitsuki]

Just goes to show that in any historical wargame an O-Level in probability will be of more use than a PhD in the history of the period.

[Colonel Kilgore]

That is very true 

Simon

[Leman (Andy)]

0w my head hurts. Two things:
1. Maths is not fun, but wargaming is.
2. To have fun should not involve trying to work out probablity.
3. Surely the reason for doing this is to win.
4. That's why I play solo.
4a. In editing this I unwittingly deleted 5 and 6.
5. The spanish Inquisition always deals with two things.
6. Can't remember what 6 was.
7. When wargaming becomes less about history the probability is that I will hang up my dice.

[Sean Clark]

But I think in a game like Art de La Guerre, probability is quite important. I find it interesting only in he sense that it differs so much from the RFCM stable of games I play.

If I'm rolling 12 dice to my opponents 8, I know immediately that I should win, but it's more based on experience than knowing the percentages.

If you're only rolling 1 dice, then you have a lot more to think Bout oddly!

I'm experience anyway.

[usagitsuki]

It's one of the reasons I prefer 'buckets of dice' games. It's much harder to work out probability, and it becomes more about estimation which is more 'immersive.' With only a few dice involved, if you have an aptitude for mental arithmetic and a few decades experience of playing dice games, you can't help but work out the probabilities.

[martin goddard]

Single D6 combat is always "wild" in that the results are all equally likely. Sometimes that is what is wanted.  That is more about fun than tactics.


martin

[mellis1644]

I like ADLG in that the die mods are easy to work out - +1 or even +2 is way better than an even roll etc. OK I do not work out how much better and I guess many people do not but the opposed die means you feel like you have a chance. Also, those rolls do at times not always go the way of the odds and with the difference between the rolls mattering upsets happen.

1D6     Win   Draw   Loss
no advantage   42%   16%   42%
+1 advantage   58%   14%   28%
+2 advantage   72%   11%   17%
+3advantage   84%   8%   8%


But they key bit is that simple mechanic leaves the tactical items about to be how to get those better odds. So matchups and unit moves to get those better combinations become key. You likely will have to fight some poor match ups (as your opponent is also trying to do the same) but can you delay those and get your ones in first etc.

Ancients (and fantasy games) can often be line the figs up and charge across the table and just roll die. The ADLG system which puts emphasis on deployment (an area that many games miss the tactics of), and then on (and off) table movement of elements vs. just the charge straight at the opponents nearest troops.

[Ben Waterhouse]

Whooosh!

That's maths over my head...

[martin goddard]

Don't worry Ben, DBA is very different and opposite to anything that RFCM does.

DBx is very popular.
However there is no overlap between DBx and RFCM/Piggy mechanisms.

Opposite philosophy of game play.

The two are different and appeal to different player groups.
That is the joy of wargaming.  Diversity.


martin

[Ben Waterhouse]

Wise words Martin

[mellis1644]

However there is no overlap between DBx and RFCM/Piggy mechanisms.

Opposite philosophy of game play.

The two are different and appeal to different player groups.
That is the joy of wargaming.  Diversity.


martin

Some weird people like me like both - both they do give a very different feel to games.

SAGA and most TFL rules (CoC etc.) that sort of thing have a different feel again.

As stated lost of fun can be had with the various rule sets