Countdown to Battle - Proposed system

[SimonC]

I created a script to simulate the method as described here -

https://rulesforcommonman.uk/index.php?topic=3535.0

First thing is the logic behind the 'gamble' for the chase. This is quite rudimentary. I'be given a risk averse factor. So if you are 100% risk averse you always stick with you first roll. 0% risk averse means you always gamble (a long night!). The result of your throw adds to this factor, so even the most gambling person will stick when they get a good 'run of dice'. Its a simple algorithm but will suffice to start.

The rest is actually pretty simple in that the number of events are predetermined. So I'll continue to use the 1915 German Attack point chart.

So with each player being 50% 'risk averse'



So the most notable factor straight off the bat. The game type has been ramped up by a lot! The Big Push % is more than doubled.

The events are 'different' while you get less as the attacker - they will be better, and conversely the defender has more but worse.

[SimonC]

So to throw in some variables lets say Army 1 is 0% risk averse , that means they only stick when there running total is 'good'. For example if you have a running total of 15 , you have a 15% chance of sticking. The is the most 'gambly' you can be



Steady Eddie - Player 2 is 100% risk adverse so sticks on every throw. His results are -



The type of game has changed so the lower level of attack has now increased.

So if you think sticking all the time is a viable course to defending, actually you are only increasing your chances by a couple of %

[SimonC]

This last example was perhaps too extreme.

Lets make
Army 1 75% RA (Steady Eddie)



Army 2 25% RA (Gambling Gary)


So you can see the no gambling approach can be used to increase your chances to defend. But the level of game is much increased.

Note these results are effected by no cap on the chase for the last round

[SimonC]

So there is an issue on the chase where the attacking players could go on a 'hot run' on the last throw meaning the difference could be larger than perhaps we desire. So if I cap at 40 - so when you get there - stop!

Army 1 75% RA (Steady Eddie)



Army 2 25% RA (Gambling Gary)



The influence on attack/defence is the same - but its flattened out the extremes of the battle type somewhat

[Colonel Kilgore]

Simon - that is indeed how the Piggy Chases operate - as soon as one player gets to or exceeds  the target number, the chase stops and he or she is deemed to have reached that target and no more.

So if the target is 40, and the winning player gets to 43, he is deemed to have scored 40 and the gap recorded is that between the loser's score and 40.

Simon