Expectation of outcome

[martin goddard]

Here is one of those occasional  bits of thought to give insight into what RFCM  team  thinks is a good method. It is nor writ, but just conversation. Thus, it might be wrong in the opinion of some, but at least it is explained

It is common in wargames rules to have matters decided on a single D6.
If that D6 gives 6 steps (rather than just 6  completely random outcomes, such as "name of hat") of result. Say 1 being the poorest and 6 being the best then that makes all results equally likely.

If the result is important  e.g result of a fight, players are probably just chucking D6 and abandoning tactical considerations. An example of this would be the fire and fury  roll a D10. Player who rolls a 1 is doomed and the 10 will win.

The upshot of all this is the reason I prefer the D6 to be a "flex" to the result, rather than the main result itself.


e.g using D6+7 gives results between 8 and 13.
The opponent might have D6+3. Giving results 4 to 9.
That would allow players to tactically consider the situation and make a reasoned decision rather than "what the hell, here goes".

Thus, if I were seeking players to get about 8 points from a roll:-

At one extreme they could roll 2D6, allow a re-roll and they will average 8 over the very long term but the result will be a "what the hell".

At the other extreme one could just say "the result is 8".

The central one I would recommend would be D6+4. This would give 5 to10 as outcomes . Neither extreme should over affect the outcome. By "over effect", I mean allowing a player to lose or win from a wild roll.

Overall the D6 + mechanism allows outcomes to be varied but not wild.

martin

[Colonel Kilgore]

Thank you for this explanation, Martin.

I do find such insights into RFCM rule mechanisms and the statistics behind them interesting.

Simon