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General discussion / Superstition in wargames
« Last post by Colonel Kilgore on Today at 09:12:04 PM »
When the subject of mysticism came up in Martin's thread about the maths behind the dice rolls, it struck me that many of us may have our own little superstitions or rituals.

Do you have a unit that can always be counted upon to save the day? Or equally to run away at that critical moment?

Do you have a lucky [not "naturally loaded"] set of dice, that get the low scores when you need low, and high ones when these are called for?

Or some leader figures that usually get lots of command dice, while others roll abysmally?
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General discussion / Re: Some maths (part 1)
« Last post by Colonel Kilgore on Today at 09:07:41 PM »
Thanks Martin - all very clear and useful.

When playing we probably don't think overly much [trusting no doubt in the mathematical ability of the designer] about such probabilities - not sure whether that is a good (speeds up the game) or bad (more likely to make poor decisions) thing!
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General discussion / Re: Some maths (part 1)
« Last post by martin goddard on Today at 06:56:21 PM »
maths3.
Difference between 2D6.  This can be used to create a narrower set of outcomes with a strong grouping around 1. This is great if you want the results to be fairly predictable but with some chance of wander. I have done the probs of this under game mechanics previously i think. It could be extended to 2D6  v 2D6 for a closely grouped set of results.  Even more cluster would be 2D6 v 2D6 and take the lowest of each pair. Or the higher of each pair should give same answers.  Or for better v worse fighters roll 2D6 each and better fighter takes their higher scoring D6 and the worserer fighter  takes their lower scoring D6..  The worserer might win, but not often.
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General discussion / Re: Some maths (part 1)
« Last post by martin goddard on Today at 06:48:38 PM »
maths (2)
A short note about the use of a saving roll.Prob= probability.

assuming both players use a single dice (D6).


saving rolls.
If you multiply the probability of a hit by the probability of not saving you then have the probability of a dead.
eg  If the hit score needed is 4,5,6 and the save score is also 4,5,6.  there is a 3/6 prob of getting a hit. There is a 3/6 prob of not saving. This multiples gives 9/36= 1/4 prob of a kill. Such a probability is not achievable by a single D6.
eg. If the hit score needed is 4,5,6  and the save score is now 5,6 due to some modifier.  This gives a 3/6 prob of a hit and a prob of 4/6 of not saving.  This multiplied gives 3/6 x 4/6=12/36   = 1/3.
So a modifier of 1 changes the chance of death from 1/4 (25%)  to 1/3 (33%) which is a reasonable but not huge difference.


Use SCW as an example.  The best save possible is saving on a  2,3,4,5,6. usually foot in buildings at range.
The worst save would be 5,6. Usually foot in the open at short range .
These are the extremes.
Assuming 5,6 to hit (normal shooting).   Worst chance of saving (in the open at short range) would be 2/6  x 4/6= 8/36=prob of dying.    Best chance of saving (in a building at longer range) would be 2/6 x 1/6=2/36. so the chance of dying is 4 times more at the extremes.

As %,  the chance of dying at worst is 22%   the  least chance of dying is 6%.    The "average " prob of dying in SCW is 2/6  x 2/6=4/36= 11%.



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General discussion / Re: Some maths (part 1)
« Last post by martin goddard on Today at 05:24:14 PM »
I think w e may end a WW2combat veteran for some of those.  On a physical note air pressure might have an effect?
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General discussion / Re: Some maths (part 1)
« Last post by Colonel Kilgore on Today at 04:46:19 PM »
Excellent - very much looking forward to that.

I have a few thoughts on things that can influence the dice gods, and would suggest that:
  • painting the figures yourself
  • doing so in a careful and loving way
  • being concerned about and sensitive to losses to one's little lead men
all enhance luck.

Whereas:
  • buying pro-painted figures (however lovely they might be)
  • not cleaning up or painting figures carefully
  • transporting them carelessly
  • frequently throwing them into suicidal attacks
have a negative influence on the dice.

But I'm very much looking forward to Lesson #47 when we get onto such advanced mystical probability factors, and to hearing from an expert.
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General discussion / Re: Some maths (part 1)
« Last post by martin goddard on Today at 04:30:32 PM »
Well of course there is the mysticism part of probability but i will get to that!
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Hey you in the Jail! / Re: The Stage Coach
« Last post by martin goddard on Today at 04:29:19 PM »
Might be included as a liability. Liabilities are part of the rules ideas at the moment. This means the defender will often have a liability.
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Hey you in the Jail! / Re: The Stage Coach
« Last post by Duncan on Today at 04:13:13 PM »
Just building the QRF one at the moment in preparation for the Western theme.
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Hammerin' Iron / Re: Bad luck
« Last post by Colonel Kilgore on Today at 03:24:22 PM »
Well, the new Vietnam figures are clearly going to be making you a fortune  ;)
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